Rigorous owner-investor analysis: audited filings, earnings power value, and economic moats

Curve profile & macro regime. Not enough live readings to classify the curve shape. The 10Y sits at —, the 10Y–2Y spread at — and the 10Y–3M spread at —. Over the past year the bill sector moved — while the long end moved — — a mixed pattern. Comparing the 10Y to the Fed Funds target rate reveals structural normalization: while the central bank anchors the short end, long-end market rates operate on real supply-and-demand dynamics, fiscal deficits, and debt issuance rather than monetary policy alone.

Three months — the policy anchor. The 3M bill at — is the cleanest market proxy for where the Fed funds target sits today; it holds close to the prevailing policy range until the market gains confidence in the next decision. This short-end rate represents the ultimate risk-free hurdle rate—the baseline yield against which every corporate investment and equity purchase must be measured.

Six months — the forward policy read. The 6M at — prices the expected average policy rate over the next two quarters, while the 1Y at — extends that horizon to four. Comparing those points with the 3M reveals whether investors expect a pivot, a pause, or renewed tightening. Not enough front-end readings to judge near-term policy expectations.

One year ago versus today. The structural story is un-inversion rather than a parallel rally. Short maturities (1M–6M) have eased as policy normalised — the 3M moved from — to — — while the long end has shifted the other way, with the 10Y at — versus — and the 30Y at — versus —. That combination is bear steepening: expanding fiscal deficits and heavy coupon issuance, plus a rebuilt term premium for holding duration, keep long rates elevated even as cash rates fall.

Three years ago. The purple curve captures the peak of the hiking cycle: front-end yields repriced violently as policy turned restrictive, pushing the 3M to — against a 10Y of — and producing a deep inversion — historically the market's clearest recession signal.

Five years ago. The grey curve is the post-pandemic baseline: policy rates pinned near zero under ZIRP with active large-scale asset purchases suppressing term premium, so the whole front end printed near — and even the 30Y only reached —.